Bouncing Birth Rate Will Mean Big Future Consumer Market

By Richard Edsall
(February 1957, Canadian Business)

Confusing the gloomy forecasters of the 30's and the war years, Canada's birth rate has climbed steadily in the 50's. In 1954 it almost equalled the 35 year peak of 1921. The rate of increase in 1954 was higher than in any other western industrial nation, higher even, than in India.

This reveals a vote of confidence in our country's future from the mass of our citizens. At the same time it shows a guarantee of steadily growing future markets for business.

Canada's lead over other major western countries is impressive, but equally interesting are the facts on where the increases have been concentrated: by age of mother, and by province.

Rise has been by no means uniform. All the increase has been among younger women. The birth rate among women over 35 has declined.

Birth rate changes varied across Canada

Nearly all provinces rate higher than the national average, either on the 1954 birth rate (Nfld., N.B., Que., Alta.), or on the rate of increase from 1926-54 (P.E.I., N.S., Ont., Man., Alta. And above all B.C.).

Alberta stands alone in surpassing the average on both scores while neighbouring Saskatchewan is the only province failing to match either of the national averages.

Large families are coming back into vogue with prosperity. But this is not the old fashioned type of large family with ten or more children. Proportion of births representing the seventh to the twentieth child born to the same mother has been steadily dropping. But families with from four to six children have been on the increase, even since the end of the war.

In 1946 only 34% of births were in families of four, five or six. By 1950 they had risen to 37% of births, and by 1954 to 40% a major change for eight years.

Babies can look forward to a longer life expectancy

Boys born in 1931 could look forward to 60 years of life. In 1951 they had 66 1/3 years ahead, a gain of 10.5 %. Girls did better with life expectancy jumping by 14% from just over 62 years at birth in 1931 to nearly 71 years in 1951.

Girls have been getting a better break than boys at every age, even though they were already ahead in 1931. At ten, a boy's life expectancy has climbed from only 58 to just over 60, while a girl's has soared from nearly 59 years to 64. At 20, the boy in 1931 looked forward to another 49 years.... In 1951, to nearly 52. But his twin sister in 1931 had nearly 50 years ahead of her, nearly 54 1/2 in 1951.

Significant decline in infant mortality rates

The greatest improvement has been in infant mortality. From 1926-30 9. Out of every 1000 infants died during their first year. From 1936-40, 64.5; 1946-50, 46; and in 1954 not quite 34 died. The drop since 1926 was by 64%. Even at that Canada's infant mortality rate is very high for an economically advanced nation.

A far less critical period in childhood is from one to four years of age. Only one child of that age died in 1954 for every six infant deaths. The rate at age one to four was still twice as severe as for older children. In this pre-school age group there has been an even greater relative decline in the death rate since 1926. Rate is down from 7.8 deaths per 1000 in that year to 1.5 in 1954.

The drop in the death rate since 1926 has been by better than 60% for every age group from birth to aged 40.

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